Canada's Unfair Electoral Equation

[New Democracy]

Dear list members,

    Here is the latest report from Rob Richie of the Center for Voting and
Democracy.

Don,

     Donald Davison of New Democracy at http://www.mich.com/~donald
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Date: Tue, 3 Jun 1997 18:31:58 -0400
From: Robert D Richie <FairVote at compuserve.com>
Subject: Canada's Unfair Electoral Equation

From: Rob Richie, Center for Voting and Democracy
             http://www.igc.org/cvd/

CANADA'S 1997 ELECTORAL EQUATION :
     PLURALITY = POLARIZATION

The winner-take-all national elections that took place
in Canada yesterday (June 2, 1997) were clearly
unfair -- with the Liberals turning 38.5% of the popular
vote into 51.5% of seats and the Conservatives seeing
their 19.1% of the national vote translate into a paltry
6.6% of seats.

What was most stark, however, were the incredible
distortions, province-by-province. The distortions are
not simply a theoretical problem: they will increase
tensions over national unity, with the second and third
largest parties at bitter odds over how to handle French-
speaking Quebec -- instructively, the Quebec separatist
party (theBloc Quebecois) won only 37.6% of the vote
in Quebec, but snared a comfortable majority of the
province's delegation and will be the third largest party
in parliament despite not fielding any candidates outside
of Quebec. Meanwhile, the second largest party in
parliament, the Reform party, has no patience with
Quebec and won no seats east of the western province
of Manitoba. To add to the distortions, the governing
Liberals also won a full two-thirds of their seats in only
one province -- Ontario, where their 48.5% of the vote
won an astounding 101 of 103 seats.

Below are the results, first nationally and then
province-by-province. Also included in an excerpt
from a commentary by Henry Milner, a political scientist
who is co-editor of INROADS, a journal of Opinion.

Results as of 1:30 A.M. EST June 3, 1997
  S=Seats, PS= Percent of Seats, PV= Percent  of Votes, DIF= Difference

          S        PS       PV        DIF
Lib      155     51.5    38.5     13.0
Ref       60    19.9     19.1       0.8
BQ        44    14.6     10.8       3.8
NDP      21      7.0     11.0      -4.0
PC        20      6.6     19.1    -12.5
Oth         1      0.3      1.5       -1.2
          301    100.0   100.0      0.0

Lib= Liberal
Ref= Reform
BQ= Bloc Quebecois
NDP= New Democratic Party
PC= Progressive Conservative
Oth= Other

                 Province - by - Province

(Seats won, with percentage of popular vote
in province in parentheses -- it does not add
up to 100% in provinces because it is not
listed for parties that did not win seats there)

 Newfoundland (7 seats)
       4 Liberal (37.5%), 3 PC (36.4%)

 Nova Scotia (11 seats)
       6 NDP (30.2%), 5 PC (30.4%)

 Prince Edward Island (4 seats)
       4 Liberal (44.7%)

 New Brunswick (10 seats)
       3 Liberal (32.7%), 5 PC (34.8%),  2 NDP (18.2%)

 Quebec (75 seats)
      26 Liberal (36.0%), 44 BQ (37.6%),  5 PC (22.0%)

Ontario (103 seats)
      101 Liberal (48.5%), 1 NDP (18.5%),  1 Indep. (1.8%)

Manitoba (14 seats)
      6 Liberal (34%), 3 Reform (23.3%), 4 NDP 22.8%)
      1 PC (17.4%)

Saskatchewan (14 seats)
     1 Liberal (24.5%), 8 Reform (35.8%), 5 NDP (30.75%)

Alberta (26 seats)
    2 Liberals (23.65%), 24 Reform (54.1%)

British Columbia (34 seats)
   6 Liberals (27.5%), 25 Reform (41.2%), 3 NDP (17.35%)

NW Territory /Yukon (3 seats)
   2 Liberal (?), 1 NDP (?)

(Below is an excerpt from Henry Milner's commentary, co-editor
of INROADS, a journal of Opinion and professor at the School of
Policy Studies at Queen's University, Universite Laval)

...Let us imagine that, instead, the election had been fought under the
German-style electoral system recently adopted in New Zealand
known as MMP (mixed-member proportional). MMP gives each party
winning at least five percent of the popular vote an overall number of
seats in Parliament proportional to its share of the popular vote. And
yet, since half those seats come from single-member districts, each
New Zealander still has his or her own MP.

Had Canadians voted just as they did on Monday but under MMP, the
numbers would have been very different -- especially for the
Conservatives. They would have come in third with 58 seats just
behind Reform's 59, with the NDP up and the Bloc down to 33 each.
The Liberals would have been left with 118.

But the contrast between an MMP Parliament and our newly-elected
"rainbow" Parliament would have been greater in its composition
than in overall numbers. Liberals, Conservatives and NDPers would
have won seats in all provinces or regions; Reformers in all but Quebec.

To state this is still to understate how different the outcome would have
been: the campaign itself would have been very different in an MMP
environment. Unlike under our present system, the parties would have had no
incentive to concentrate their efforts and resources only in the regions
where they were doing well, since under MMP every vote counts equally
toward
electing an MP. The Conservatives would have put far more effort into the
West. The NDP and also Reform would have worked hard for support in Quebec.
The Bloc might even have been tempted to run candidates outside Quebec,
since any votes they garnered could only help it win seats. .....
* * *

Stay tuned, for more on Canada, recent elections in France and more.....