[EM] Thoughts on a nomination simulation

[Dave Ketchum]

On Jun 16, 2010, at 9:57 PM, Kevin Venzke wrote:
> Hi Kristofer,
> --- En date de : Mer 16.6.10, Kristofer Munsterhjelm <km-elmet at broadpark.no 
> > a écrit :
>>>> Even so, the simulation would fail to catch
>> certain aspects
>>>> of the election cycle itself. Consider a two party
>> state
>>>> under FPTP. In a pure opinion-space analysis, the
>> two
>>>> parties would converge on a common point (the
>> "center") in
>>>> an effort to eat into each others' voters, yet in
>> reality
>>>> that doesn't seem to happen - the Republican and
>> Democratic
>>>> parties appeal to different voters.
>>>
>>> A possible theory: They could not converge to the
>> center because a
>>> third candidate could decide to sit on the outer side
>> of one, and still
>>> be somewhat viable. So, a candidate needs to be far
>> enough from the center
>>> to discourage a rival nomination from the same side.
>>
>> That is possible. Would primaries encourage that effect? If
>> so, would we expect parties in two-party states without
>> voter primaries to be closer to each other?
>
> I'm not sure. I tend to view primaries as one form of a phenomenon  
> that
> will inevitably happen under FPP one way or another. If there's  
> something
> important about them I guess it has something to do with timing...

Plurality NEEDS primaries because its voters can vote for only one.   
If X1 and X2 run for party X, without primaries, they can expect to  
each get only half the votes intended for party X.  If Y1 is the only  
candidate for party Y, Y1 has a big advantage over X1 and X2.